Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?
Implied probability 20%+1
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$21k
Resolves20 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 13 Oct, 00:15 UTC | 19% |
| 12 Oct, 22:27 UTC | 19% |
| 12 Oct, 21:40 UTC | 20% |
| 11 Oct, 21:40 UTC | 21% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on the margin of victory between 'Remain' and 'Leave' in the Alberta independence referendum scheduled for October 19, 2026. For the 'Yes' outcome to occur, the difference between the valid vote percentages for 'Remain' and 'Leave' must fall within the 20–40% range.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 81%
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