Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$45k
Liquidity$84k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 21 Sept, 19:12 UTC | 0% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on which company owns the AI model ranked highest on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026. Readers often mistake the linked news story about FAA tools as relevant to the resolution, but only the specific leaderboard data determines the winner.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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