Will Elon Musk attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?
Why it moved: +17 points at 23:52 UTC, after CBS News Politics: Sen. Thom Tillis calls Trump-Xi visit "a WTF moment" — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 25 Sept, 02:59 UTC | 100% |
| 25 Sept, 01:13 UTC | 99% |
| 25 Sept, 00:59 UTC | 98% |
| 25 Sept, 00:20 UTC | 99% |
| 24 Sept, 23:52 UTC | 99% |
| 24 Sept, 23:21 UTC | 82% |
| 24 Sept, 22:53 UTC | 83% |
| 24 Sept, 22:00 UTC | 82% |
| 24 Sept, 21:53 UTC | 78% |
| 24 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 85% |
| 24 Sept, 20:31 UTC | 85% |
| 24 Sept, 20:10 UTC | 85% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 85% |
| 24 Sept, 19:24 UTC | 87% |
| 24 Sept, 18:56 UTC | 85% |
| 24 Sept, 18:17 UTC | 86% |
| 24 Sept, 17:55 UTC | 87% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 87% |
| 24 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 87% |
| 24 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 87% |
| 24 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 87% |
| 24 Sept, 15:25 UTC | 87% |
| 24 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 100% |
| 23 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 95% |
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Elon Musk is physically present at the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping, which must occur between now and October 7, 2026. It resolves to "No" if he does not attend or if the dinner happens outside this window. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking the event must happen before market creation, when it actually must happen after.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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