Will Ariana Grande win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
The market favoured No at 77% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: −23 points at 00:54 UTC, after RSS: News: MTV VMAs 2026 Winners: See the Full List Here — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 03:03 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 01:03 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 18:15 UTC | 26% |
| 22 Sept, 17:54 UTC | 27% |
| 22 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 32% |
| 22 Sept, 13:34 UTC | 32% |
| 22 Sept, 13:15 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Sept, 12:20 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Sept, 11:59 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Sept, 11:27 UTC | 32% |
| 22 Sept, 10:34 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Sept, 09:20 UTC | 31% |
| 22 Sept, 08:56 UTC | 31% |
| 22 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 31% |
| 22 Sept, 07:47 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Sept, 06:14 UTC | 29% |
| 22 Sept, 05:54 UTC | 31% |
| 22 Sept, 05:29 UTC | 29% |
| 22 Sept, 04:51 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Sept, 04:20 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Sept, 03:54 UTC | 31% |
| 22 Sept, 03:27 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 29% |
| 22 Sept, 02:27 UTC | 29% |
| 22 Sept, 01:47 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Sept, 01:06 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Sept, 00:53 UTC | 32% |
| 22 Sept, 00:26 UTC | 33% |
| 21 Sept, 23:22 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Sept, 22:56 UTC | 35% |
| 21 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Sept, 21:40 UTC | 33% |
| 21 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 27% |
| 21 Sept, 20:48 UTC | 27% |
| 21 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 31% |
| 21 Sept, 19:55 UTC | 31% |
| 21 Sept, 19:19 UTC | 28% |
| 21 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 38% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Ariana Grande is officially named the winner of Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. It resolves to No if she does not win or if she was not on the official nominee list when announced. Readers often mistake the linked story about Taylor Swift for a prediction of the Artist of the Year winner, but that honor is separate from this specific award.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →