Will Hurricane Polo peak at Category 3?
Implied probability 1%
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves16 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 19:07 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 17:18 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 14:48 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 14:23 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 07:44 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 03:30 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 03:22 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 02:51 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 02:18 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 22:28 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 21:53 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 20:57 UTC | 1% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on the highest Saffir-Simpson category assigned to Hurricane Polo in any official National Hurricane Center advisory. For the "Yes" outcome, Polo must reach Category 3 intensity (111–129 mph winds) at its peak before dissipating or by the deadline. Readers often mistakenly use wind speeds from other agencies or post-storm best track data instead of the real-time public advisories.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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