Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
Implied probability 13%+2
24-hour volume$848
Total volume$44k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 13% |
| 1 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Sept, 20:39 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Sept, 20:01 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Sept, 18:46 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Sept, 16:59 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 12% |
| 29 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is taken into physical custody, detained, or placed under house arrest by law enforcement authorities on or before December 31, 2026. It resolves to "No" if no such action occurs within that timeframe, regardless of whether an arrest warrant is issued or he is merely questioned.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 13%
- No 88%
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